Talking Points:. The - pacing US indices - posted its second largest bearish gap on the open on record on the way to a 10% correction. We've tracked the mounting signs of true risk aversion, but now even the Japanese government admits it is concerned. In addition to themes in risk, Italy and Brexit; events ahead includes EZ GDP, BOE and BOJ decisions, NFPs and much, much more With October winding down, how are the DailyFX analysts' 4Q forecasts panning out? See what the analysts forecasts for the Dollar, Equities, and more through the 4Q 2018? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the. The Market Turns the 'Fear' Dial to 9.
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It may seem somewhat absurd to suggest that risk aversion only started to genuinely gain a foothold in the global markets this past week, but that may very well be the size of our current situation. I saw it is somewhat ridiculous to only assign concern as of the past week because there have been so many risk-leaning assets that have struggled or have pitched into an outright retreat for months. Whether we look to emerging markets, junk bonds, sovereign assets with a QE-premium, carry trade or even global equities excluding the US (the VEU All-World ex US ETF), we find bearish progress for the better part of the year and for many multi-year lows. If we are talking about the widest swath of the financial system as a signal for the whole's bearing, that would be an indisputable reading. However, speculative appetite can refute such readings as it finds refuge in holdout assets with enough liquidity to harbor the diehard bulls. That was the unique position that US equities seemed to hold alongside very few other assets. So long as the S&P 500 and were pushing record highs, concern over the DAX's or the EEM's struggles would not turn contagious.
That said, bulls' favorite 'yes, but' source of confidence took a potentially-catastrophic turn for worst this past week. Already on track for one of the worst months in a decade, genuine pain was signaled in the indices this past week.
The S&P 500 opened Friday alone with its second largest bearish gap on record. It would also stretch down to a technical 'correction' (a 10 percent retreat from highs) on an intraday basis.
Technically, the exaggeratedly obvious trendline support for the benchmark index - mirrored on its Dow and peers - changed from reliable spring board for dip buying to new resistance to project bears. The collapse of a decade-long bull trend is not yet assured, but the market will follow the US equities moves more readily lower than it did higher. Chart of Comparison in Risk Assets over 12 Months When Bias Shifts, Catalysts Once Downplayed Stoke Fear There is already evidence to show the speculators across region and asset class are far less responsive to any-and-all positive news while trouble - both insinuated and overt - drives the bears forward. This may seem a pedantic definition of the obvious, but the underlying bias of the speculative rank trumps the catalysts that more often commands the attention of traders looking for signals for new opportunities or to avoid cascading risk. With a bullish bias, 'good news' extends gains while the 'bad' is discounted or outright ignored. With a bearish setting, the opposite is true.
Suddenly, the troubling clouds approaching from the horizon look genuinely daunting. And, the list of storms out on the radar is somewhat overwhelming. Earnings have proven a great example of how bias can shift fundamental event's influence on price, particularly the reaction to to Netflix, Google and Amazon. We are due more important corporate updates - Apple, Facebook, US Steel, GM, etc - in the week ahead.
Further, there are some expectations that a slump in corporate buybacks is soon to pass. Should that not earn more buoyancy, it will dash another holdout source of strength. Far more systemic but too often overlooked, the US-China trade war and global monetary policy deserve much closer scrutiny. Is within reach of the offshore Renminbi's record low in its short history and the supposed 'red line' of 7.0000, and rhetoric for these two countries is showing no sign of improvement while growth and sentiment figures start to sputter. As for monetary policy, there is good reason to believe the world's largest central banks and their expansive stimulus programs have been a key pillar in promoting speculative enthusiasm. If confidence in their ability drops, there is little they can do already so exposed.
Chart of USDCNH (Daily) A Fluid Fundamental Role for the Dollar Measured by USDJPY As we look to various event risk and markets to reflect the mood of the financial system, one currency will stand out as a critical measure of conviction and intensity: the Dollar. The Greenback registered a significant advance through the entire week with the putting in for a technically-noteworthy break above 96.15. That particular move disrupted the right shoulder of the five-month long head-and-shoulders pattern the currency had carved out. Fundamentally, this would seem to align with the drop in risk trends - the slide from the S&P 500 and charge for the VIX. Yet, with US indices signaling a continuation of reversal on a massive gap lower this past Friday, the Dollar noticeably broke stride. If risk aversion begins to spiral into outright financial instability, the need for liquidity would leave the currency with few peers. Yet, 'mere' selling pressure can render the Dollar a low-yielding but buoyant carry currency that quickly tips into retreat.
Monitoring the currency's correlations to implied yields derived from Fed Funds futures and the VIX can help determine what role it is committing to - and it can also signify the degree of risk aversion. It is this fundamental aspect that will be my principal concern in the week ahead. As for event risk like Friday's 3Q GDP reading or the upcoming PCE deflator, consumer confidence survey and NFPs; the implications will be secondary. To further refine the evaluation, is a pair that can render the same conclusion without statistical reference.
The Yen is a funding currency which can act like a safe haven, but is fundamentally different. Standard risk aversion sees the pair drop while a systemic panic drives global capital towards key US markets. For the Yen's own fundamentals, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decision on tap for next week should not be overlooked considering the Japanese government (BOJ, Finance Ministry and FSA) held an unscheduled meeting over their concern for the capital market rout that has led to a 15 percent correction in October. Chart of DXY Dollar Index and Implied Yield from Fed Funds Dec 2019 Contract (Daily) Euro, Pound and Australian Dollar Face Unique but Risk-Complementary Themes While a systemic move in risk trends will envelop the entire financial system, there are critical fundamental themes that we should monitor for more isolated impact - or perhaps even as catalysts for the tectonic shift. The Euro's focus will be pulled in multiple directions between scheduled event risk and a persistent theme. For the former, we have Euro-area 3Q GDP readings and sentiment surveys among other event risk.
It is Italy's face off with the European Union that will pose the most persistent threat however. Headlines referring to both sides contempt for the other's plans will no doubt dot the newswires, but will also have Italian 3Q GDP and the previous month's budget give a known milestone. The same need to distinguish focus will create an uneven terrain for Sterling traders. Progress (or lack thereof) on Brexit will take precedence, but progress has been remarkably uneven.
In contrast, the Bank of England (BOE) rate decision will come with an explicit date and time. This particular meeting is the so-called Super Thursday whereby the Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) and Governor Carney's press conference are due alongside the decision on rates. The BoE is still considered the third most hawkish major central bank, so there is much riding on the outcome. However, the group's propensity for dire forecasts on Brexit can bridge two important themes. Another currency that will be high on my watch list ahead is the Australian Dollar.
Though typically a carry currency, the showed little response to the swing lower in risk trends these past weeks. That can suggest a shifting bias for this specific currency, but the Australian 3Q GDP and CPI readings may alter that skew. We discuss all of this and more in this weekend Trading Video. Chart of Equally-Weighted Euro Index (Candle) and Equally-Weighted Index (Daily) If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file. About your FOREX.com Demo Account A demo account is intended to familiarize you with the tools and features of our trading platforms and to facilitate the testing of trading strategies in a risk-free environment.
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Last September, I was lucky to visit Israel as part of 40 under 40 mission from Atlanta, organized by the. The group comprises young professionals who had been and had not been to Israel, including those who are married, single, LGBTQ, parents, Jewish and Non-Jewish, and one Israeli- Me. As part of my day job in the Israeli ministry of Tourism, and in my personal life, I try to bring Israel to the people I talk with. Israel is a very diverse and complicated place. This country has a lot to offer as a tourist destination, and a lot for you to learn about. When people hear about Israel in the news, most of the times, the headlines are about the Israel- Palestine conflict.
However, if you are actually living in Israel, there are way more complicated issues Israelis deal with on a daily basis. Take Jerusalem for example; I wasn’t there for five years.
Like many Israelis, my relationship with Jerusalem, the capital of Israel, is very complex. I get the importance of this city to the Jewish people and other religious people. However, for me, Jerusalem is the center of every conflict we have in Israel; Israel vs Palestine conflict, Secular Jews vs Orthodox Jews conflict, Jerusalem vs Tel-Aviv conflict, etc. The only way to really understand this country is to be there. And when you are there, it takes time to understand the country.
Most of the people I meet describe Israel as “overwhelming”. And yet, it is one of the most interesting places in the I wanted to be part of this mission to Israel for a few reasons: First, I wanted to explore Israel as a tourist – hotels, buses, tourist sites, museums, food, culture, everything.
Second, I wanted to see my country through other people’s eyes. I have lived in Israel all my life. I know it is a special place, but only when I moved here and working for the Israel Ministry of Tourism, meeting people that had been there and were emotional while speaking about their visit, I realize that it is a very special place, which I often take for granted. Third, as I mentioned in my previous posts, I’m trying to create some kind of personal connection with young American Jewish people. I believe it is very important for the future of the Jewish people and Israel as a Jewish state. This mission was designed to challenge participants by learning new things about Israel, which the only way to be exposed to them is to actually be in Israel and talk to Israelis.
The most common example is to ask a group of Israelis, “Where is the best Hummus in Israel?” You will get at least one recommendation per one person, if not more. Israelis can share the same views, however, every one of us has different take on how we observe things and explain them to others. Our visit lasted for a week and the schedule was very tight. We were in Jerusalem, Herzliya, Haifa, Tel-Aviv, and Yokneam (Atlanta twin city). We had lectures with journalists, activists, high-tech professionals, Muslims, Orthodox Jewish, NGOs, philanthropists, Jewish Reformers, etc.
Omer, our guide and storyteller, added history and a personal touch, which was a great experience for the participants. Each one of us took something different from this visit. My goal was to be present in those moments people realize that everything they think they know about Israel is not actually what is happening there, and I did. For me, there were two significant events that I will forever cherish. On our second day in Jerusalem, we met who is an Israeli activist and serves as the Executive Director of the, also known as IRAC. She is the director and a founding member of Nashot HaKotel, also known as. I have heard about Hoffman in the past, but meeting her was a different experience.
You get hooked the moment she starts talking. She is full of passion and knowledge. Her ability to make people think is inspiring. She has a unique ability to speak in a language that most Jews around the world would understand and follow – an ability most Israelis don’t have. On the fifth day, when we visited (by Taglit in partnership with TASE), we had a panel discussion with three interesting women. The first woman is an Ultra-Orthodox Jew.
She is a part of Neturei Karta- controversial group among Israelis and Jews around the world. To be honest, as an Israeli, I have met with Ultra-Orthodox Jews and even worked with them, but I have never met a member. It was hard to listen to her, and out of respect to the group, I didn’t leave the room, but I was very close. The other two women are national religious settlers from Elkana (Israeli settlement), and the other a secular-liberal Israeli from Tel Aviv. Their views were no news to me. It was interesting to learn about their views and observe members of the group overwhelmed by them.
However, like the “Hummus” example I mentioned before, I didn’t agree with any of them, and for me, this is Israel. In order to understand Israel, you should visit there to get a taste of how complex it is. If you can’t travel there, try to talk to Israelis who can bring you something from there. Most importantly, learning about Israel doesn’t mean that you should support what Israel does or doesn’t do. For us Israelis, I will say it again and again, our relationship with American Jews and Jewish people around the world depends on us. We need to welcome any question or criticism coming our way, even if we don’t like it. This is the only way to maintain any kind of connection with the Jewish Diaspora and for the sake of the Jewish state, Israel.
I would like to thank the for this experience. Special thanks to: Ariel, Staci, Samantha, Adam, Rachel, Omer, Kenes Tours and all members of the group, who made great trip. Yours, Hagar.